While the world’s attention is diverted by the tragic massacre of soccer fans in Egypt, the seemingly intractable situation in Syria continues.  Although there was no reasonable expectation that al-Assad would heed the resolution, attempts to introduce a strongly-worded UN Security Council resolution, based on an Arab League document, which called for Bashar al-Assad to step down, have been thwarted by Russian threats of a veto. The draft resolution originally contained a clause calling on UN member states to halt the export of arms to Syria.  That clause has now also been dropped due to Russian objections.  Russia has continued to export arms to Syria throughout the course of the uprising.  Some estimates of Russian arms sales to Syria place the figure as high as 10% of Russia’s total arms exports, while Russian arms sales to Syria are currently estimated at $1.5 billion. With language calling for al-Assad’s resignation and a halt to arms sales removed, the UN resolution’s passage would now seem to have little purpose.

All of this takes place against a backdrop of steadily rising violence that increasingly resembles a civil war with more and more soldiers defecting and citizens taking up arms.  The so-called “Free Syrian Army,” (FSA), comprised of defectors and armed citizens, has grown in step with each crackdown on protesters by Bashar’s regime.  Nevertheless, thus far, there has been no mass exodus from Assad’s army.  As such, the balance of power still favors the regime.  Moreover, while the FSA has inflicted numerous casualties against government loyalists, any full-scale confrontation with Assad’s troops would be incredibly bloody and likely result in the FSA’s defeat.

Syria finds itself in a violent holding pattern with no visible means of escape.  Assad remains intransigent, now perhaps buoyed even further by support from his Russian benefactors.  Meanwhile, as the military continue its strikes, often in densely populated civilian areas, Syrians pay in blood for protesting in favor of Assad’s fall, or for simply being in the wrong place at the wrong time.  While there is a sense Assad will inevitably go the way of Ben Ali, Mubarak, Saleh, or, perhaps even Gaddafi, until that day comes, Syrians will continue to endure repression and violence at Assad’s hands.